November 12, 2014
Natural gas vehicle market continues to grow despite declining diesel prices
U.S.--With the natural gas powered vehicle market seemingly stalled as diesel fuel prices continue to drop, ACT Research has released the results of its updated research on U.S. Natural Gas transportation fuel trends in the heavy duty truck market. The report ‘NG Reality Check: Moving from Infancy to Adolescence’, published in October 2014, is a comprehensive, forward-looking long-term analysis on the use of natural gas as fuel in U.S. heavy Class 8 truck transportation.
ACT published its first comprehensive NG study in 2012. This report was more bullish than today’s report, reflecting the enthusiasm of the moment that included planned market and product development that has been slow to materialize with a narrowing fuel price spread and improving diesel engine fuel economy gains.
“The previous long-term penetration over-statement does not mean NG has not grown. It has and will continue to grow, but at a slower rate the next few years.” says Ken Vieth, ACT Research’s senior partner and general manager. He added, “NG Class 8 truck/transit bus penetration was three per cent in 2013 and should reach four per cent in 2014, or about 11,000 units.”
Looking at the most likely adoption curve, NG heavy class 8 penetration is expected to total 23 per cent of the units sold in 2025. If the total new U.S. class 8 truck/transit bus market is 200,000 units that year, then the NG market will be a strong 46,000 units. According to Vieth, “That’s a large quantity that will be shared by those with an understanding of tomorrow’s truck transportation needs and plans to get there.” He continues, “Depending upon the emissions and greenhouse gas needs of the nation and the regulations put in place in coming years to achieve those needs, NG penetration could even be higher since NG is equally available and is a cleaner, cheaper (CPM) fuel than diesel.”
To test NG payback options, access the FREE ACT Research Truck Fuel Payback Calculators & NG DGE Pump Price Calculator at http://calc.actresearch.net/
ACT is the recognized leading publisher since 1986 of new and used commercial vehicle (CV) industry data, market analysis and forecasting services for the North American market, as well as the China CV market. ACT’s CV services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as the banking and investment community.